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Justin Kollar's avatar

Don't forget state preemption, which has been used for housing and renewables, but increasingly for (fossil) energy and data centers. State-level lobbying (fragmentation point from APE) is arguably more important than the Federal lobbying for dealing with local resistance---just take away permitting or zoning authorities!

Howard Yu's avatar

Loudoun County. Of course.

I wrote a piece a while back about rare earths and why pharma ingredients ended up in China. Same logic underneath here, I think.

Wall Street wanted 40% margins on software. Refining rare earths gives you maybe 4%. So we let it go. The Chinese state didn't care about margins. It cared about position. Different scorecard, different country.

Your hyperscalers basically have what Beijing has. Patient capital. The long horizon. The ability to outwait any city council that pushes back. The renters and small developers don't get that. They're stuck on the Wall Street clock.

Tesla built its Shanghai gigafactory in 12 months. California was still arguing over parking permits four years later. Loudoun puts up a data center in two years and affordable housing dies in committee. Same gap.

Six wins out of 140 activist groups. Sigh... Thank you for writing this. Super insightful!

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